Will Pettitte handle the slugging LA Angels tonight in his 4th start since his impressive return?  If NY hits, he looks like the ageless help NY has gotten these last few years.  Keep the ball in the park, Andy.

Past week, Jays fade, Sox and Yanks improve.  Still the brutal AL East.


AL East:         Era Starter-Pen,  OPS     GB

Baltimore     (29-20)  4.31 - 2.33,  749
Tampa Bay   (29-20)  3.39 - 3.68,  725    
NY Yankees   (26-22)  4.74 - 2.76,  797    - 2.5
Toronto           (25-24)  4.03 - 4.40,  722    - 4.0
Boston            (24-24)  5.08 - 3.74,  786    - 4.5


Over their heads:

Boston       BA: 272,  Ba-risp: 298   + 26
Toronto       BA: 244,  Ba-risp: 282   + 38
Baltimore    BA: 249,  Ba-risp: 247   - 2
Tampa Bay  BA: 242,  Ba-risp: 230   - 12
NY Yankees BA: 267,  Ba-risp: 221   - 46


Red Sox and Blue Jays living over their heads with runners on, due to slow down.

Yanks and Rays due to score more.

Andy Pettitte rejoined the Yanks staff on Mother's day after 2 years away and pitched as expected - let's see the next few.

Orioles continue to surprise everyone. especially skeptics of their starters.  Stood up against Texas.

Jays hang around;  Rays and Sox rebound but 4-6 over last 10.

Beckett stumbles after the golf stint, fans booing.  Missed start, prefering to play 18 as rehab.  Really?

The season is one quarter along later this week - Will the AL East eat each other's young?



AL East:        Era Starter-Pen,  OPS     GB
Baltimore   (22-13)  3.98 - 2.13,  758
Tampa Bay  (21-14)  3.55 - 4.33,  747    - 1.0
NY Yankees (19-15)  4.78 - 2.70,  808    - 2.5
Toronto         (19-16)  3.40 - 4.45,  713    - 3.0
Boston         (15-19)  5.80 - 3.92,  795    - 6.5

17th inning, pens are out of gas.  Odds on one of your best hitters?

Adrian Gonzalez struck out against Orioles DH Chris Davis on three pitches. That's almost impossible to fathom, isn't it?

AL East:      Era Starter-Pen,  OPS

Baltimore    (19-9)   3.56 - 1.41,  759
Tampa Bay  (19-10)  3.51 - 4.45,  758

Toronto        (16-13)  3.55 - 4.25,  710
NY Yankees (15-13)  5.54 - 2.31,  806

Boston         (11-16)  5.88 - 4.53,  769


--

O's are hanging in.  Rays and Jays, too.  They have starters.

Mo Rivera will be back.  On one leg, if need be.

April 30th

End of April, and the O's and Jay's aren't fading.  The O's are living on starters and a pen (and Buck Showalter), but need some hitting.  The Jay's look weaker all around.

The 3 initial favorites struggle in different ways:  the Rays have won 7 of 8 on their starters - no pen - and hitting 31 points lower with runners in scoring position than overall BA. Once this improves, watch out.

The Yanks have the pen, but must keep slugging to try and outrun no starters. The Red Sox starters are better but suspect along with a pen out of ink, so slugging away has saved them for now.  Dice-K is due back... is that a good thing?  If the O's and Jay's hang in, a tough division limits any one of these five teams total wins.

AL East:      Era Starter-Pen,  OPS

Baltimore  (14-8)  3.71 - 1.88,  742
Tampa Bay  (14-8)  3.44 - 6.17,  775
NY Yankees (12-9)  6.37 - 2.06,  833
Toronto        (12-10)  3.51 - 4.52,  718
Boston         (10-11)  5.19 - 6.34,  797

Its two weeks or so into the 2012 baseball season.  By the end of the weekend we'll be 10% along the way to playoffs.  Here's how things stand:

The O's and J's insist they'll compete in the toughest division in the majors and they are, so far.  Both riding ok starters, so-so hitting but good on base averages.  Can they hang come August?

The Sox and Rays are struggling as their slugging can't overcome weak bullpens.  Sox starters have yet to gel and the hangover from the end of last year looks to be still hurting the chemistry.  Dusty tells Bobby V that's not the way we do things around here... airing barbs with the media.  Bobby V knows no other way or he's looking to rally teamates around Youk.  Not working so far.

The Yanks starters have been shakey - CC still rounding into form and Kuroda looking great one start, corroding in another.  Nova shines, Hughes can't challenge hitters inside.  Garcia?  bet the over.

But it's the bullpen that shines, giving the Yanks confidence that as long as they slug they can overcome those early runs by sloppy starters.

The little lyric bandbox that is Fenway turned 100 - Fans cheered a tipsy Kevin Millar and the 212 Sox players, but the 25 Yankees in old style uniforms put 5 solo homers into the seats and held the Red Sox to 2 runs to cool an otherwise sunny party.  Sox fans are hoping the pen improves after sending Melancon down to Pawtuket but it's the starters 2 through 5 that may be a bigger worry.

Spring is here, let's play two.   


AL East:     Era Starter-Pen,   OPS

NY Yankees (8-6)  5.40 - 1.71,  835
Baltimore     (8-6)  4.30 - 2.44,  760
Toronto         (7-6)  3.92 - 4.57,  701
Tampa Bay   (7-7)  4.02 - 8.49,  762
Boston         (4-9)  6.09 - 6.13,  762

Wk 26:  Down to the last strike... season ending.  Heartbreak only remains.

The incredibly improbable?  or the cruelest version of an old script?   Cursed fate rules.

New York Yankees  (96-61) --> (97-65)   wk 1-4
Tampa Bay Rays     (87-71) --> (91-71)   wk 4-0   6
Boston Red Sox       (88-69) --> (90-72)   wk 2-3   7
Toronto Blue Jays     (80-78) --> (81-81)   wk 1-3   16
Baltimore Orioles       (67-91) --> (69-93)   wk 2-2   28

2 outs, 2 strikes...  bottom of the 9th.  We've all played that in our backyards as kids.  The thrill of victory? ..or the agony of defeat.  Walk off win or slump off defeat.  

Wednesday night, it didn't just happen beyond all likelihood, it happened twice.  Rays down 7-0 in the 8th, a 9th inning HR to tie, an extra inning walk off winner.  The Red Sox up 3-2,   best closer on the mound, 2 strikes, 2 outs, ...then bang: 2 runs, game over, season over.

How improbable?

On Sept. 3rd, odds of Red Sox reaching the playoffs?  99.6 %
Odds of Red Sox winning Wed. in the 9th?  >>> 95.3 %
Odds of the Rays coming back from 7-0 in the 8th?  .3 % (99.7 against, 300 to 1)
Odds of a ninth inning hit by the Rays Johnson, 2 outs, 2 strikes?  BA was .108, 1 hit in 45 ABs with 2 strikes, a 2% chance)
Odds of a rain delay in Boston, allowing the Sox to watch the Rays unlikely comeback?  long and spooky.

Overall probability of all these things happening that night together?  One chance in 278 million.

Like flipping a coin and having it land edge on standing up.  Twilight zone odds.

But that doesn't add in the old destiny - the heartbreak that Boston knows all too well.  If the gods wrote the script, it would be as cruel as possible, as last minute as the 9th on the last day, as story book as 2 strikes, and as ironic as the last hope of a one game playoff saved is dashed 3 minutes later when the Rays pull off an impossible comeback.

Babe, Bucky, Buckner, Boone, Baltimore.

Week 25:   Wilted Sox, Ray of hope

Sox get X'd by O's, NY.  Yanks help by taking Rays.

New York Yankees  (91-59) --> (96-61)   wk 5-2  + sunday,  97-62
Boston Red Sox      (87-64) --> (88-69)   wk 1-5                     89-70
Tampa Bay Rays     (84-67) --> (87-71)   wk 3-4                     88-71  one back
Toronto Blue Jays    (76-75) --> (80-78)   wk 4-3
Baltimore Orioles    (62-88) --> (67-91)   wk 5-3

How has Sept. been?

               W     L
Yanks    16     9  +7
Rays      14   10  +4
Sox          6    18  -12

Boston holds a slim one game WC lead with 3 to play vs. the Orioles (who beat them 3 of 4 last week), while the Rays play the already clinched Yanks resting and prepping for Friday.

 

Wk 24:  Sox wilt under hot Rays, help Yanks clinch.

Shades of April?  Sox droop in Sept under Rays, wild card at risk.  Boston fans are rooting for the Yanks (!) to slow Tampa.  But it's looking like a spectacle for their last series.  

as of sunday, 9/18/11:

New York Yankees   (87-57) --> (91-59)   wk 4-2 + sunday, 91-60
Boston Red Sox       (85-60) --> (87-64)   wk 2-4                   87-65   -4.5
Tampa Bay Rays      (80-64) --> (84-67)   wk 4-3                   85-67   -6.5, 2 back of WC
Toronto Blue Jays     (73-73) --> (76-75)   wk 3-2                   77-75
Baltimore Orioles     (58-86) --> (62-88)   wk 4-2                   62-89

In Sept:

Red Sox:    4-13
Yanks:      10-7
Rays:        11-6

Ironic the way things are working out.  Do the math:  Yanks have a magic # of 7 with 11 to play.

1 = Twins
2 = split with Rays
2 = split by Sox/Balt
Leaves 2 for the Boston/NY series...

So ONE win among those 3 games means the Yanks CLINCH at home in the big ballpark, with Mo's 602, having their good pals the Red Sox as company.  priceless.   What a nice gesture, I say.  Colorful backdrop, great photos, rest the last few games.

Imagine that.